**value betting**approach.

To fix the odds for an event, a bookmaker calculates the probability of a sports result actually happening. If the bookmaker underestimates this probability, the odds that it offers are too high, thus allowing you to bet at advantageous odds. A value bet is therefore a bet for which the bookmaker has underestimated the probability of the result occurring.

A bet is a value bet if the following formula applies:

If you want to find the best value bets, you’ll need to calculate the probabilities for the events yourself. If your estimates are correct, you’ll win your bets more often than the probabilites shown by the bookmakers’ odds would seem to indicate, thus making a long-term profit.

So, the difficulty in making value bets consists of being able to calculate probabilities more accurately than the bookmakers. Bookmakers have a range of powerful tools at their disposal and, at first sight, this may seem like a hopeless task.

However, if you find the right experts for each sport and remember that sports houses play with the fans heart, there is a small change to put the odds in your favor.

Besides it is really important to understand and optimize the following variables:

Money management

Money management

**One can start with 10.000 money units (USD, EUR, GBP...) as our bankroll. In this case, bet size will be 200 m.u., unless other specified. When one wins 5.000 m.u., the bet size will be increased in 100 m.u. It is common to lose 60-65% of the time, but with favorable odds.**

Picks

**Data needed to define a pick: sport event, winner, bet size, and minimum odds. In general, the idea is to keep bets till the end of the match.**

**Bet houses**

**Not all bet houses show the same odds. It´s obvious that we have to choose the most advanced one, so the use of some software to compare different odds for the same event is a must.**

*Besides the above*, we have implemented statistically advantageous strategies which are difficult to verify in real life otherwise.

We are always alert to be the first ones to detect a change in our models or the public collective mind, however, after many years now, the trackrecord couldn´t be better.